The last presidential election held in Belarus in 2020 resulted in Alexander Lukashenko being declared the winner with 80% of the vote. This announcement sparked widespread allegations of electoral fraud, months of protests, and a severe crackdown that saw thousands of arrests.
To avoid a repeat of such unrest from critics of his nearly three-decade-long authoritarian rule, Lukashenko has rescheduled the upcoming 2025 presidential election. Initially slated for August, the election has been moved to the colder month of January, a time when street protests are less likely due to the freezing weather.
Lukashenko Seeks Seventh Term Amid Tightened Control
With many political opponents imprisoned or exiled, the 70-year-old Lukashenko is poised to secure a seventh term as the president of Belarus.
When the election concludes on Sunday, he is expected to remain the leader of the nation, as he has been since 1994. Belarus, a country of nine million people, emerged from the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 and has since been tightly controlled by Lukashenko’s regime.
A Legacy of Soviet Influence and Dependence on Russia
Positioned between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, Belarus has maintained close ties with Moscow.
Lukashenko, a former collective farm director, rose to power amid public dissatisfaction over post-Soviet economic hardships, pledging to tackle corruption. Since then, his administration has relied heavily on Russian subsidies and political backing.
Belarus allowed its territory to be used by Russian forces during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In addition, the country has agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons as part of its alliance with Moscow.
Lukashenko, often called “Europe’s last dictator,” has cemented his rule through crackdowns on dissent and controversial elections deemed neither free nor fair by Western standards.
Lukashenko’s leadership reflects a nostalgic admiration for the Soviet era. He has reinstated Soviet-style economic controls, minimized the use of the Belarusian language in favor of Russian, and replaced the national flag with one resembling the Soviet-era design. Belarus also stands out as the only European nation to retain the death penalty, carrying out executions by gunshot.
A History of Repression and Fluctuating Relations with the West
Over the years, Lukashenko has occasionally softened his stance to negotiate for Western economic support. However, these overtures ended following the brutal suppression of dissent after the contentious 2020 election.
The election’s outcome, widely regarded as fraudulent, ignited the largest protests in Belarusian history. The government responded with a massive crackdown, resulting in over 65,000 arrests, police violence, and the closure of hundreds of media outlets and NGOs, prompting international sanctions.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko (Photo: Markus Schreiber)Leading opposition figures have been silenced, either through imprisonment or exile. Human rights organizations report that approximately 1,300 political prisoners remain detained, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, founder of the rights group Viasna. Amnesty International described the current environment as a “suffocating climate of fear.
Strategic Timing and Political Maneuvering
Lukashenko’s decision to move the election up, ostensibly to align with strategic planning efforts, has drawn criticism. Political analyst Valery Karbalevich suggested the real motive was to minimize the likelihood of mass protests in January’s frigid weather.
In preparation for the election, Lukashenko recently pardoned over 250 political prisoners, a move seen as a calculated attempt to ease tensions. However, this has been accompanied by intensified crackdowns, including arrests of family members and associates of dissidents, as well as participants in community-organized online discussions.
Katya Glod, a policy fellow with the European Leadership Network, observed that the election is taking place in a “climate of fear and repression” that has persisted since 2020.
Unlike the previous election, Lukashenko faces only nominal challengers, as the Central Election Commission has disqualified genuine opposition candidates.
Pavel Sapelka of Viasna highlighted the dire conditions faced by jailed opposition leaders, stating that many are being held incommunicado under harsh conditions, with some suffering from severe health issues.
Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who fled Belarus after contesting the 2020 election, called the upcoming vote a farce, urging citizens to reject all candidates. Her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, remains imprisoned after attempting to run for office in 2020.
Strengthening Ties with Russia Under a Nuclear Umbrella
In December 2024, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty providing Belarus with security guarantees, including the potential use of Russian nuclear weapons.
This agreement followed Moscow’s decision to include Belarus under its nuclear protection as tensions with the West escalated over the war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus is hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons, extending Moscow’s ability to target both Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe.
Plans are also underway for Belarus to host Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, which could be deployed later in 2025, with Moscow maintaining operational control over their use.
As Belarus heads into the election, its political landscape is shaped by fear, repression, and unwavering dependence on its powerful ally, Russia. Lukashenko’s grip on power appears unshaken, ensuring that his legacy as Europe’s longest-serving leader will continue for years to come.