More than 30 years after breaking away from the Soviet Union, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have begun the process of disconnecting from Russia’s electricity grid and integrating with the European Union’s network.
The two-day transition began on Saturday morning, with authorities advising residents to charge their devices, stock up on food and water, and prepare as if for severe weather conditions.
Many people have been instructed to avoid using lifts, and in some areas, traffic lights will be switched off.
A specially designed giant clock will count down the final seconds before the switch at a landmark ceremony in Lithuania’s capital on Sunday. The event will be attended by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Once completed, the three nations will officially sever ties with the power grid that has connected them to Russia since the post-World War Two years.
‘On High Alert’
The Brell power grid—named after its member states Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—is largely controlled by Moscow and has long been viewed as a strategic vulnerability for the three Baltic nations.
Although Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are NATO members and stopped purchasing electricity from Russia in 2022, their reliance on the Brell grid meant that Moscow still controlled energy flow to their countries.
After disconnecting on Saturday morning, the Baltic nations will conduct frequency tests before officially integrating into the European grid via Poland on Sunday.
“We are now removing Russia’s ability to use the electricity system as a tool of geopolitical blackmail,” Lithuania’s Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas told AFP news agency.
Professor David Smith of the Baltic Research Unit at the University of Glasgow described the move as the culmination of decades of work.
“It’s the culmination of efforts over more than 10 years or 20 years, to reduce that energy dependence,” he told the BBC.
“When the Baltic States joined the EU and NATO, everybody talked about them being an energy island that was still dependent on that joint electricity network with Belarus and Russia,” he explained. “That’s been completely broken now.”
Tensions between the Baltic nations and Russia have escalated since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The three states share a combined 543-mile (874km) border with Russia.
Since the invasion, suspected sabotage incidents targeting electricity cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea have raised concerns that Moscow might retaliate against the Baltic countries’ shift toward EU energy integration.
Baltic States Announce A Shift To European PowerConcerns Over Sabotage
In the last 18 months, at least 11 undersea cables in the Baltic Sea have been damaged.
In one notable case, a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker was accused of damaging Estonia’s primary power link in the Gulf of Finland. The Kremlin declined to comment on the allegations.
While NATO has not directly accused Russia of involvement, the alliance has responded by launching a new regional patrol mission known as Baltic Sentry.
“We cannot rule out some kind of provocation. That is why Latvian and foreign security authorities are on high alert,” Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said on Wednesday.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina echoed those concerns, saying, “Clearly there are risks, we understand that very well. But the risks are identified, and there is a contingency plan.”
‘Cyber-Attacks’ and Disinformation Threats
A spokesperson from the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence told the BBC that multiple emergency operation tests have been conducted in recent months to prepare for potential targeted attacks on the energy system.
Gert Auvaart, head of Estonia’s Cybersecurity Centre, warned that Russia “may attempt to exploit this period to create uncertainty.” However, he assured that international cooperation had ensured Estonia was “well-prepared even for worst-case scenarios.”
He also noted that cyber-attacks on Estonia had increased sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These attacks range from “hacktivist-driven DDoS attacks [Distributed Denial-Of-Service] to more sophisticated, targeted operations against government agencies and businesses.”
Additionally, authorities in the Baltic states remain on guard against disinformation campaigns tied to the energy transition.
Shortly after the three nations formally notified Russia of their intent to leave the Brell grid in August 2024, social media campaigns falsely claimed that the move would lead to power shortages and skyrocketing electricity prices.