There are moments in history when nations become consumed by election fever. January 2025 in Belarus is not one of those times. A drive through Minsk reveals a stark absence of large billboards displaying candidates’ portraits.
The bleak skies and icy sleet of a Belarusian winter only amplify the prevailing sense of stagnation. And inevitability.
The result of the 2025 presidential election is a foregone end. Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator,” has ruled Belarus with an iron grip for more than three decades. He will be declared the winner, securing a seventh term in office.
His supporters describe the process as an example of “Belarusian democracy.” His critics dismiss it as “a farce.”
Even Lukashenko himself appears indifferent to the proceedings. “I’m not following the election campaign. I have no time for that,” the Belarusian leader remarked to workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant this week.
The workers presented him with a symbolic gift: an axe for chopping wood. “I’ll try it out before the election,” Lukashenko quipped, drawing enthusiastic applause.
In Minsk, an election-related display in green, red, and blue does not promote any particular candidate. Instead, it simply serves as a reminder for citizens to vote on January 26.
More than four years ago, Lukashenko faced a very different reception at another factory.
A week after the 2020 presidential election, he visited the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant. Leaked footage captured workers jeering and chanting, “Go away! Go away!”
Back then, the official election results—giving Lukashenko 80% of the vote—ignited outrage and mass protests. Belarusians flooded the streets, accusing him of election fraud and vote rigging.
The government responded with a brutal crackdown. Thousands of protesters and dissenters were arrested. Over time, repression crushed the protests, and with Russian support, Lukashenko managed to retain power.
The UK, the European Union, and the United States refuse to recognize him as Belarus’ legitimate leader. Lukashenko’s most determined opponents—and potential challengers—are either imprisoned or living in exile.
This is why the European Parliament recently passed a resolution urging the EU to reject the upcoming election as “a sham,” highlighting that the election campaign is unfolding “in an environment of severe repression that does not meet even the minimum standards for democratic elections.”
I recall interviewing Lukashenko last October, on the day the election date was announced. “How can these elections be free and democratic when opposition leaders are either in prison or abroad?” I asked.
“Do you even know who the opposition leaders are?” Lukashenko shot back. “An opposition should represent at least a small section of the population. Where are these leaders you speak of? Wake up!”
Alexander Lukashenko (Photo: Getty Images)Lukashenko is not the only candidate. Four others are also running. However, they appear more like placeholders than genuine contenders.
Sergei Syrankov, leader of the Communist Party of Belarus, is among them. I traveled four hours from Minsk to Vitebsk to attend one of his campaign events. In a large hall, he addressed a modest audience, flanked by the Communist Party’s emblem—the hammer and sickle.
His campaign slogan is unconventional: “Not instead of, but together with Lukashenko!” Syrankov is a candidate who openly supports his rival.
“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko as our nation’s leader,” he tells me. “We are participating in the election as part of the president’s team.” “Why do you believe there is no alternative?” I ask.
“Because Lukashenko is a man of the people, a man of the land, who has ensured that we don’t descend into the chaos seen in Ukraine.”
“You’re running for power but backing another candidate—that’s quite unusual,” I point out. “I am certain Alexander Lukashenko will win by a landslide. But even if I don’t win, the Communists will.”
“After all, the top Communist in our country is our head of state. Lukashenko still has his old Soviet Communist Party membership card.”
Oleg Gaidukevich, leader of the right-wing Liberal-Democratic Party, is also on the ballot. He, too, acknowledges the inevitable outcome.
“Anyone who claims they don’t know who will win is lying,” Gaidukevich tells me. “It’s obvious Lukashenko will be victorious. His popularity is overwhelming…We are participating to strengthen our position and prepare for the next election.”
Lukashenko’s critics dispute the notion that he enjoys “massive” popularity. However, there is no denying he does have support.
In the small town of Oktyabrskaya, on the outskirts of Vitebsk, I find many people who fear change could lead to instability.
“I want a stable salary and stability in the country,” says Sergei, a welder. “Other candidates make promises, but who knows if they’ll keep them? I’d rather stick with what I have.”
“These are difficult times,” Zenaida, an elderly resident, tells me. “Perhaps there are others more deserving of power. But by the time a younger leader builds international relationships and earns the trust of our own people, it would take too long. “God forbid we end up like Ukraine.”
In Belarus today, fear of uncertainty, fear of turmoil, and fear of the authorities all serve to reinforce Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power.