Why Kamala Harris might choose a California governor run over another presidential campaign

Many people who support or oppose Kamala Harris believe she would have a better chance running for California governor than making another bid for president.

There are several reasons why running to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom might appeal to her. She would likely become the front-runner right away, instead of entering a presidential primary crowded with strong competitors. No other California candidate has her background — having served as San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general, U.S. senator, and now vice president.

Though expected to make a decision by the end of summer, Harris hasn’t shared much about her plans. Speaking in Orange County in April, she said: “I’ll see you out there. I’m not going anywhere.”

Newsom said Harris would likely lead the field in a primary, but added, “if she runs.”

To run, “you have to have a burning ‘Why?’” Newsom said during a podcast interview.

“And if you can’t enunciate that, the answer is ‘No,’” he added. “Why the hell would you want this job?”

Here are reasons she might be interested — and why she might not be. Her office didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Pro: She can avoid a messy 2028 primary

To run for president in 2028, Harris would need to convince Democrats she represents the party’s future, even though she lost to Donald Trump last fall. She is closely tied to President Biden, who is facing criticism over concerns about his age and performance during his time in office.

The 2028 race is expected to draw many candidates, possibly including Newsom. The nominee will need to unite a divided Democratic Party, which has low approval ratings and is struggling to counter Trump’s actions in Washington.

Democratic consultant Bill Burton, a former press secretary for Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said Harris would enter the race with a solid fundraising network, strong name recognition, and experience dealing with a tough media environment.

Still, the big question for Democrats, according to Burton, will be: “Who is the best person to stand up to the MAGA movement and exhibit a strength that is going to need to be really formidable?”

Some think Harris isn’t that person.

“She’s had her chance,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

“Voters want authentic outsiders who will shake up our broken political system and challenge an economic status quo rigged for billionaires against working people,” Green said. “That’s why Kamala Harris lost, and it’s why Democrats must turn elsewhere for leadership.”

Pro: California governor may be a safer option

Harris often refers to herself as a proud Californian. After serving in the Senate and as vice president, she doesn’t need a new title. Still, California has one of the world’s largest economies, and its governor is a high-profile figure.

She would likely campaign as someone with the right experience to handle California’s many challenges — like homelessness and high living costs — while continuing to oppose Trump’s influence. California has often been a center of opposition to Trump’s policies.

During a speech in San Francisco last month, she said the country was seeing a “wholesale abandonment” of American values under Trump.

The race to replace Newsom already includes major names like former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra.

It’s possible that some Democrats would step aside rather than run against Harris. That may include Porter, whom Harris once appointed to help oversee a major mortgage settlement.

Democratic strategist Roger Salazar said Harris would have better chances in her home state’s governor race.

With her past election wins in California, “there is just more certainty,” Salazar said. “I think she’s got a leg up right now, but this race hasn’t solidified” with the primary still more than a year away.

Con: Will voters accept her return?

How voters see Harris will matter. Will they view her as a respected figure returning to lead her home state, or as someone trying to recover after losing twice in presidential runs?

Republican consultant Kevin Madden, who worked on Mitt Romney’s campaigns, questioned her chances in both presidential and governor races. Few people win the presidency after two defeats — though Joe Biden is one exception.

For the governor’s race, Madden said, “the California electorate is about as ideal as it gets for Harris, but nothing about her current electoral record indicates that primary or general election candidates should be scared off.”

Con: She might not face a Republican in the general election

California uses an open primary system, meaning all candidates — regardless of party — appear on the same ballot, and the top two advance to the general election. This setup can create unexpected results.

In last year’s Senate race, Democrats Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee were all on the ballot. Schiff aired ads that mentioned Republican Steve Garvey, possibly hoping to face him instead of another Democrat. Garvey advanced but lost badly to Schiff.

Harris could emerge from the June 2, 2026, primary facing another Democrat who criticizes her in ways similar to how she’d be challenged in a presidential race.

Democratic consultant Eric Jaye, based in San Francisco, mentioned another Californian who tried to make a comeback — Richard Nixon. After narrowly losing the 1960 presidential race to John F. Kennedy, Nixon lost the 1962 California governor race. (He later won the presidency in 1968.)

Jaye said that while Harris is well-liked by many Democrats, some voters dislike her strongly. That makes it harder for her to gain more support, especially if the Democratic vote is split among several candidates.

“I don’t think it’s in any way guaranteed that she would win,” Jaye said. “She’s a highly polarizing figure.”

Con: Does she want to lead California?

If Harris runs for governor, she’ll be facing serious problems.

California’s homeless crisis continues in major cities like Los Angeles. Newsom recently said the state has a $12 billion budget deficit and proposed freezing enrollment in a state health care program for immigrants without legal status. The state is also dealing with high home insurance costs and the ongoing danger of wildfires.

Republicans would likely blame her — whether fairly or not — for California’s high taxes, expensive gas and utilities, million-dollar home prices, and liberal policies, just as they did in the last election.