Trump’s $1 Billion Houthi Campaign Ends in Ceasefire With Key Threats Still Unchecked

President Donald Trump’s military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi militants has cost the U.S. more than $1 billion since March 2025, without delivering a decisive blow to the group. Despite extensive bombing raids and missile strikes, the Houthis retained their ability to launch attacks, including a recent strike aimed at Israel’s primary international airport. Two fighter jets and seven drones were lost during the operation, and the campaign, named Operation Rough Rider, depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles significantly.

This week, Trump announced a surprising ceasefire agreement: the U.S. would suspend attacks against the Houthis in exchange for a halt in attacks on American ships. Brokered in part by Oman, the deal appears limited in scope, covering only U.S. vessels and not protecting Israeli or other international interests. The details remain vague, including its duration and long-term impact on the broader regional conflict that escalated after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

High Costs, Limited Clarity, and Persistent Houthi Threats Undermine U.S. Campaign Effectiveness

Assessing the campaign’s success has been difficult. U.S. surveillance drones were frequently downed by Houthi forces, and the lack of American personnel on the ground in Yemen hampered accurate battlefield assessments. While thousands of munitions were deployed—some costing millions apiece—Pentagon sources differ on the total cost, with estimates ranging from $400 million to over $775 million. Additionally, millions were spent on deploying and maintaining Patriot defense systems in the region.

Experts argue the temporary halt in hostilities does little to address the Houthis’ broader influence or capabilities. Dana Stroul, a former Pentagon official, warned that despite the suspension of attacks on U.S. ships, the group remains a potent force in the region. They are expected to continue targeting Israeli interests and commercial shipping routes, with no impact on Yemen’s ongoing civil war or the Houthis’ long-term agenda.

Conflicting Strategies and a Fragile Ceasefire Shape Trump’s Houthi Exit Narrative

The Trump administration’s approach contrasts with that of the Biden administration, which also engaged the Houthis but with more restraint. Biden officials had drawn up comprehensive plans to severely weaken the Houthis but passed them to Trump without implementation. Trump ramped up military pressure, deploying more naval and air defense assets, but internal disagreements over the campaign’s direction surfaced publicly, including concerns from Vice President JD Vance about its strategic viability.

Ultimately, the Trump administration may use the ceasefire deal to frame its mission as a success and exit the conflict with minimal political damage. If attacks on American vessels stop, officials argue the U.S. can claim it restored “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea. However, with the Houthis still active and influential, the root problems in Yemen and regional security remain unresolved, leaving future administrations to grapple with their resurgence.